This application helps use Bayes' Rule to compute the probability P(H|B+E) that a hypothesis H is true given background information B and new evidence E. You need to know (1) P(H|B), the "prior" probability of H given B; (2) P(E|B+H), the probability of E given B and H; and (3) P(E|B-H), the probability of E given B and not H. If you can only guess these values, the "Range" tab allows you to give minimum and maximum values for each quantity. In return, it gives the minimum and maximum values of P(H|B+E).
This app is based on Richard Carrier's discussion at http://www.richardcarrier.info/CarrierDec08.pdf. However, the author is not affiliated with Dr. Carrier.
Bayes Rule Calculations is a free software application from the Teaching & Training Tools subcategory, part of the Education category.
The app is currently available in English and it was last updated on 2013-07-13. The program can be installed on Android.
Bayes Rule Calculations (version 2.3) is available for download from our website.
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